About Paceline

Paceline is an independent valuation tool for used road and gravel bikes. Every price you see is computed daily from real listings across the web — not a sticker price, not a generic depreciation rule, not a number someone made up.

How a valuation is calculated

For each bike — a specific brand, model, year, and groupset tier — we collect every asking price we can find that day across the marketplaces below. We discard the obvious outliers (the optimist asking double, the panic-seller asking half), then compute the median and the interquartile range. The number you see is that median; the band around it is the 25th–75th percentile spread.

Active listings tell us what sellers are asking. To get closer to what bikes actually sell for, we also track when a listing disappears within a price-drop trajectory — a strong signal of a real sale — and discount the last observed asking price by roughly 8%to approximate the negotiated clearing price. We call those “inferred sold” observations, and they pull the valuation toward reality over time.

Confidence is reported per valuation: high when the sample is large enough that the median is stable across resamples, medium when it is plausible but thin, and low when there are too few listings to trust the number. Treat low-confidence numbers as a starting point, not a verdict.

Where the data comes from

• ▸The Pro’s Closet, Brooklyn Carbon Cycles, RA Cycles, Pulse Endurance Sports. Specialist used-bike shops whose inventory is unusually well-described — brand, model, year, groupset, frame size. The bedrock of our active listings.
• ▸eBay Browse API. A long tail of private and shop sales across the US used-bike market, refreshed daily.
• ▸Inferred sold observations. When a listing disappears after a price-drop pattern, we record it as a likely sale at the haircut-adjusted final asking price.

All sources are cited in plain English on every valuation page. We do not buy data feeds. We do not have inside access to any marketplace.

What Paceline is not

It is not an appraisal. It is not a quote. It is not a price you can hand to an insurance adjuster and expect them to write a check. The number on a model page is the centre of a distribution of real prices — useful for a sanity check, a negotiation anchor, or a quick sense of where a bike sits in the market. It cannot account for condition, originality, service history, or provenance, which is why every page also shows the live listings the number was built from.

We focus on road and gravel bikes sold in the US. Mountain bikes, BMX, e-bikes, and overseas markets are out of scope today.

Who builds it

Paceline is built and maintained by one person — an avid road and gravel cyclist who got tired of guessing what bikes were worth. Most weekends are spent riding in the mountains, which is where the project name (and the obsession with quiet, considered valuations) comes from.

Affiliate disclosure

Independence

Paceline is not affiliated with any bike manufacturer, marketplace, shop, or insurance company. No brand or seller can pay to be listed, promoted, or excluded.